TAIWAN SE CO
NU TONG THONG
PHAM DINH LAN, F.A.B.I.
Nam 1949 Cong San
Trung Hoa chiem luc dia. Quan Trung Hoa
Quoc Dan Dang cua thong che Chiang Kaishek rut ra dao Taiwan. Dao nay mang quoc hieu Trung Hoa Dan Quoc
(ROC: Republic of China) voi co Thanh Thien Bach Nhat va doc dang cam quyen:
Quoc Dan Dang (Guomindang). Nam 1971
Trung Hoa Dan Quoc khong con la dai dien cua Trung Hoa tai Lien Hiep Quoc. Tu do bat cu quoc gia nao thiet lap bang giao
voi Cong Hoa Nhan Dan Trung Quoc deu phai chap nhan chi co mot nuoc Trung Hoa
ma thoi. Tu nam 1971 ve sau, mac du quoc
hieu Trung Hoa Dan Quoc van con, dao quoc nay co lanh tho, chanh phu, quoc ky,
quoc ca, dang chanh tri co qua khu chanh
tri lau doi o A Chau va mot nen kinh te on dinh tren the gioi nhung moi khi
tham du The Van Hoi, luc si Taiwan
khong cam co Thanh Thien Bach Nhat va bang hieu Trung Hoa Dan Quoc ma chi duoc
gioi thieu la phai doan Taiwan (Dai Loan).
Nguoi ban dia Taiwan lai muon dung danh xung Taiwan tham chi co nhieu
nha chanh tri goc Taiwan muon Taiwan la mot dao quoc doc lap. Trung Quoc rat ghet tong thong Lee Teng Hui
hay Chen Shui Bian vi hai vi tong thong nay co khuynh huong bien dao Taiwan
thanh mot xu doc lap khong co lien he gi voi Trung Hoa. Lee Teng Hui hoc o Nhat va Hoa Ky. Ong sinh ra tren dao Taiwan khi dao nay dat duoi su cai tri cua Nhat Ban
theo tinh than hiep uoc Shimonoseki nam 1895.
Anh cua ong la quan nhan trong quan doi Nhat hoang tu tran trong de nhi
the chien va duoc tho trong den Yasukuni o Nhat. Thinh thoang ong sang Nhat nhu de tham vien
huong hon cua anh ong trong den Yasukuni.
Tu nam 1950 den 2016 cac tong thong
cua Trung Hoa Dan Quoc deu la nam gioi:
1. Chiang Kaishek
(1950- 1975)
2. Yen Chia- kan
(1975- 1978)
3. Chiang
Ching- kuo (con cua tong thong Chiang Kaishek) (1978- 1988)
4. Lee Teng- hui
(1988- 2000)
5. Chen
Shui- bian (2000- 2008)
6. Ma
Ying-jeou (2008- 2016)
Tu nam 1950 den 1996 cac tong thong
deu do Quoc Hoi bau len trong nhiem ky 06 nam.
Bat dau tu nam 1996 tong thong do dan truc tiep bau len trong nhiem ky
04 nam. Lee Teng- hui la vi tong thong
Taiwan dau tien do dan truc tiep bau len trong nhiem ky 1996- 2000. Ong la tong thong duoc Quoc Hoi bau tu nam
1988 den 1996.
Cac vi tong thong Chiang Kaishek, Yen
Chia- kan, Chiang Ching- kuo, Lee Teng- hui, Ma Ying- jeou deu la dang vien cao
cap cua Quoc Dan Dang (Kuomintang- Guomindang).
Ngoai tru ong Lee Teng- hui cac vi con lai deu la nguoi Hoa sinh tren
luc dia. Sinh quan cua Lee Teng- hui la
Taiwan.
Tong thong Chen Shui- bian la nguoi
Taiwan va khong phai la dang vien Quoc Dan Dang. Ong thuoc dang Dan Chu Tien Bo. Chen Shui- bian la vi tong thong Taiwan bi chanh quyen Cong San tren luc dia tham thu
vi ong chu truong Taiwan doc lap nghia la khong chap nhan nguyen tac Trung
Hoa Mot Nuoc cua Beijing (Bac Kinh).
Khi Ma Ying- jeou vua nham chuc tong thong, Chen Shui- bian bi bat, cong
tay, ha nhuc truoc cong chung va bi xu tu chung than ve toi tham nhung! Ma Ying- jeou hanh su nhu vay vi Chen Shui-
bian la lanh tu dang Dan Chu Tien Bo canh tranh rao riet voi Quoc Dan Dang
(Kuomintang). Quoc Dan Dang tan dong
nguyen tac Trung Hoa Mot Nuoc cua
Cong Hoa Nhan Dan Trung Quoc nen hanh dong tren cua tong thong Ma Ying- jeou
nham muc dich lam hai long gioi lanh dao Beijing. Tong thong Ma co khuynh huong than thien va
gan gui voi Beijing nhieu hon. Ong xem
cong thuc mot quoc gia hai he thong cua
Hong Kong la mot nguyen tac tot cho Taiwan.
Phong Trao Huong Duong bung day tren dao Taiwan chong duong loi cua Ma
Jing- jeou va thoa uoc thuong mai voi Beijing nam 2014. Sinh vien bieu tinh bao dong. Cuoc bieu tinh cua sinh vien hoc sinh Hong
Kong nam 2014 cho thay cong thuc mot quoc
gia hai he thong bi Beijing trang tron cha dap. Nguoi Hong Kong duoc huong moi quyen tu do
duoi su cai tri cua nguoi Anh. Nguoi
Taiwan vua moi thoat che do doc dang tri Quoc Dan Dang trong vong 30 nam nen
khong cam thay ‘sung suong’ ‘hoi dau’ voi ‘que huong’ de huong che do doc dang
tri Cong San mien truong va ngot ngat gap ngan lan che do doc dang Quoc Dan
Dang ma ho gap trong qua khu. Dan chung
Taiwan pho bay y nguyen cua ho trong cuoc bau cu vao thang 11 nam 2014. Quoc Dan Dang dai bai trong cuoc bau cu
nay. Ho mat 09 ghe thi truong quan trong
tren dao ke ca thi truong thu do Taipei.
O Taiwan cac thi truong Taipei deu co trien vong tro thanh tong thong
nhu Lee Teng- hui, Chen Shui- bian va Ma Ying- jeou chang han. Vi su that bai cua Quoc Dan Dang trong cuoc
bau cu nam 2014 ong Ma Ying- jeou tu chuc chu tich dang.
A Chau la la luc dia noi tuc da the
duoc pho bien va vai tro cua phu nu trong xa hoi bi giam thieu toi da. The nhung, ba Bandaranaike cua dao Ceylon
(Sri Lanka) la vi nu thu tuong dau tien tren the gioi sau khi chong ba bi mot
nha su am sat chet nam 1959. Trong nhung
nam gan day Phi Luat Tan co nu tong thong Aquino; Dai Han co nu tong thong Park
Geun-hye; Bangladesh co nu thu tuong Sheikh Hasina; Thai Lan co nu thu tuong Yingluck v.v. Su tham gia cua phu nu tren chanh truong A
Chau gia tang ro ret. Ty le phu nu trong co quan lap phap o Dong A
duoc ghi nhan nhu sau:
Quoc Gia Ty le
Taiwan (Dai Loan) 30%
Dai Han 16%
Nhat Ban 13%
Trong ky bau cu tong
thong vao dau nam 2016 o Taiwan co hai ung cu vien phu nu duoc Quoc Dan Dang va
dang Dan Chu Tien Bo de cu ra tranh chuc vu tong thong cho nhiem ky 2016- 2020. Du vi nao dac cu Taiwan cung co nu tong thong
dau tien.
Quoc Dan Dang de cu ba Hung Hsiu-chu.
Dang Dan Chu Tien Bo de cu ba Tsai
Ing- Wen.
Sau day la bang doi chieu ve tieu
su cua hai nu ung cu vien tong thong Taiwan nam 2016:
Hung
Hsiu- chu Tsai Ying- wen
Sinh nam 1948 tai Tan Taipei, Taiwan Sinh nam 1956 tai Fangshan,
Taiwan.
Hoc luc: Dai Hoc Van Hoa Trung Hoa
(1970). Hoc luc: Cu nhan Luat Khoa
(Taiwan-
MA Dai Hoc Missouri (HK- 1991)
(1978), MA Luat Dai Hoc Cornell(HK- 1980), PhD Luat London School of Economics (1984)
Nghe nghiep: day Trung Hoc Nghe nghiep: day
luat o dai hoc
Hoat dong chanh tri: dan bieu (1990-
2015), Hoat dong chanh tri: co van Hoi
Dong
pho chu tich Quoc Dan Dang (2012-),
An Ninh Quoc Gia (tong thong Lee
xu ly tong bi tho QDD (2014) Teng- hui), chu tich Hoi Dong Luc Dia
Vu (2000- 04), pho thu tuong (2006- 07), ung cu vien tong thong (2012),
chu tich dang Dan Chu Tien Bo (2014)
Tsai Ying- wen tre hon Hung Hsiu-chu
08 tuoi nhung co hoc vi cao hon va co nhung chuc vu quan trong trong chanh phu
va trong dang Dan Chu Tien Bo.
Beijing theo doi cuoc bau cu nay mot
cach nghiem chinh. Ho ung ho Quoc Dan
Dang va thu ghet chu truong va duong loi cua dang Dan Chu Tien Bo. Tay Tang muon duoc tu tri con khong duoc co
dau Beijing de yen cho Taiwan doc lap theo uoc muon cua dang Dan Chu Tien
Bo.
Duoi nhan quan cua Beijing Hung Hsiu-
chu phan anh duong loi cua Ma Ying- jeou thuan loi cho Trung Quoc hon. Cha cua nu ung cu vien Hung Hsiu- chu la Hung
Zi- yu la nan nhan cua Khung Bo Trang do cong an QDD gay ra nam 1950. Gia dinh cua Hung bi cong an den kham xet
hach hoi ngay lan dem vi bi tinh nghi dinh liu den to chuc chong chanh phu QDD
dan den cuoc tham sat 228 (ngay 28-02-1947 khi chanh quyen QDD cua Chiang
Kaishek chua bi Cong San lat do phai chay ra dao Taiwan) khi vien tong giam doc
cong ty duong noi than sinh cua Hung Hsiu- chu lam viec bi phat giac la mot
dang vien Cong San Trung Hoa. Hung Hsiu-
chu la mot dang vien QDD ta khuynh huong ve luc dia. Ba lay bang MA o dai hoc Missouri bay gio la
Dai Hoc Truman, ten vi tong thong Hoa Ky thuoc dang Dan Chu da chung kien su
sup do cua chanh quyen QDD do thong che Chiang Kaishek dung dau.
Nu ung cu vien dang Dan Chu Tien Bo la
Tsai Ing-wen tung duoc tong thong Lee Teng- hui (QDD) roi Chen Shui- bian trong
dung. Du la dang vien cao cap cua Quoc
Dan Dang, Lee Teng- hui nghieng ve Nhat va Hoa Ky hon la luc dia Trung
Hoa. Chac chan nu ung cu vien Tsai
Ying-wen co khuynh huong than Tay Phuong va Nhat Ban hon la su ‘hoi dau’ ve ‘to
quoc’ dang ca tung che do doc tai dang tri.
Ba Tsai Ying- wen hoc Dai Hoc Cornell o Hoa Ky va London School of Economics
o Anh. Kha nang tri thuc va Anh ngu cua
ba rat cao. Nam 2012 ba duoc dang Dan
Chu Tien Bo de cu ra tranh cu duong dau voi Ma Ying-jeou cua Quoc Dan
Dang. Ba that cu vi dan chung Taiwan lo
ngai neu ba dac cu va tuyen bo Taiwan doc lap thi Trung Quoc se tan cong de
chiem lay Taiwan bang vo luc!! Sau khi
duoc dang Dan Chu Tien Bo de cu, thang 05 nam 2015, ba Tsai Ying- wen tham vieng Hoa Ky. Ba duoc moi noi chuyen o Trung Tam Nghien Cuu
Chien Luoc Quoc Te (Center for Strategic
and International Studies- CSIS), du yen tiec do Uy Ban Ngoai Giao Ha
Vien to chuc va tiep xuc voi vai nghi si dang Cong Hoa va cuu thu truong Ngoai
Giao Richard Armitage.
Beijing khong ngung de doa
Taiwan. Ho khuyen dang Dan Chu Tien Bo
tranh xa Phong Trao Doc Lap Taiwan. Dai
su Trung Quoc o Washington D.C la Cui Tian- kai noi rang ung cu vien tong thong
Taiwan phai duoc su chuan nhan cua toan dan Trung Quoc! Loi tuyen bo nay nhu loi nhan nhu doi voi Hoa
Ky, mot loi de doa doi voi dang Dan Chu Tien Bo va toan dan Taiwan. Trung Quoc tung tuyen bo chu quyen tren 80%
dien tich Tay Thai Binh Duong trai dai tu Viet Nam, Phi Luat Tan xuong Ma Lai,
Brunei va Indonessia gan 3 trieu km2 thi viec ho xem Taiwan thuoc chu quyen cua
ho khong kho khan gi khi ho da manh ve kinh te lan quan su sau 30 nam thuc thi
Bon Hien Dai Hoa do Deng Xiaoping (Dang Tieu Binh) vach ra.
Cuoc bau cu tong thong o Taiwan nam
2016 khong quan trong vi su hien dien cua hai nu ung cu vien. No do luong thai do cua nguoi Taiwan doi voi
Trung Quoc.
Tsai Ying- wen se dieu chinh thai do
doi voi luc dia de tranh chien tranh voi Trung Quoc kha di giup cho ba dac cu
nhung cung khong the chap nhan Taiwan va luc dia la mot nuoc mot cach de dang
duoc.
Ve phuong dien nhan van Taiwan va
Ukraine co nhung diem giong nhau: nguoi
Taiwan la nguoi Hakka, Fujian tu luc dia Trung Hoa den dinh cu va pha chung voi
nguoi ban dia tren dao. Nguoi Ukraine
voi nguoi Nga deu cung giong Slav, ton giao, tieng noi va chu viet hao hao nhu
nhau. Nhung Ukraine la Ukraine va Nga la
Nga, hai quoc gia minh bach.
Taiwan chua dam tuyen bo doc lap nhung
ho co duy tri nguyen trang da co tu nam 1949 den gio. Tu ai cua cac nha lanh dao Cong San Trung Hoa
thuong ton it nhieu sau khi Hong Kong, Ma Cao tro thanh lanh tho cua Trung Quoc
nhung dao Taiwan van con la mot thach thuc dang ke doi voi Beijing.
Ai bo phieu o Taiwan nam 2016? Trung Quoc?
Dan chung Taiwan?
Trung Quoc bo phieu bang su hu doa vo
luc, tap trung quan doi doc theo duyen hai de dan chung Taiwan hoang so de bo
phieu cho ung cu vien co duong loi than Trung Quoc nhu da xay ra nam 2012 khi
Tsai Ying- wen (DCTB) ra tranh cu doi dau voi Ma Ying-jeou cua Quoc Dan Dang. Be ngoai cuoc bo phieu co ve tu do, dan chu. Thuc te cu tri bo phieu duoi ap luc cua dan
phao de doa chien tranh tu luc dia. Lan
nay nu ung cu vien Tsai Ying- wen co the khong choc gian Beijing bang chu
truong Taiwan doc lap de tranh su de doa chien tranh gay hoang hot cho cu
tri. Cuoc bau cu tong thong Taiwan nam
2016 tro thanh cuoc trung cau dan y giua hai khuynh huong chanh tri khac nhau
tren dao Taiwan:
1. Khuynh
huong than Trung Quoc cua Quoc Dan Dang voi nguyen tac Trung Hoa Mot Nuoc.
2. Khuynh
huong than Tay Phuong va Nhat Ban.
Taiwan giao thuong voi luc dia nhung khong xem do la mau quoc. Ho keo dai hien trang cua Taiwan cang lau
cang tot cho den khi thoi co thuan loi thi bien dao nay thanh mot dao quoc doc
lap.
Trung Quoc co the dung vo luc de tan
cong Taiwan neu khuynh huong thu hai thang cu khong?
Dieu nay tuy thuoc su luong suc va
luong dinh tinh hinh cua Trung Quoc xem suc de khang cua Taiwan nhu the
nao? phan ung cua Nhat Ban va Hoa Ky ra
sao? Khong phai vo co ma Cong San Trung
Hoa chiem lay luc dia de dang lai khong the danh chiem Taiwan tu nam 1949 den
nay. Vao giua thang 07 nam 2015 Ha Vien
Nhat Ban bieu quyet cho phep quan doi Nhat duoc quyen tu ve khi bi tan cong va
dua quan ra ngoai nuoc Nhat giup do cho quoc gia dong minh bi quoc gia thu ba
tan cong. Vai tro quan su cua Nhat o Tay
Thai Binh Duong tu Dong Bac A xuong Dong Nam A tro nen ro ret.
Ve phuong dien ngoai giao Taiwan khong
co quan he ngoai giao voi Nhat. Taiwan
khong duoc xem la mot quoc gia mac du co chanh phu dan bau, hien phap, quoc
hieu (Trung Hoa Dan Quoc), quoc ky (co Thanh Thien Bach Nhat), quoc ca, co tren
25 trieu dan, mot lanh tho rong 36,000 km2 va duoc tren 20 quoc gia cong
nhan.
Ve phuong dien dia ly va lich su
Taiwan co lien he gan bo voi Nhat. Noi
ro hon Nhat xem Taiwan la phan dat bo thuoc cua ho tu nam 1895 den 1945 sau khi
Trung Hoa nhuong dao nay cho Nhat theo tinh than hiep uoc Shimonoseki. Nhat Ban la dong minh cua Hoa Ky, Phi Luat
Tan, An Do, Uc Dai Loi. Taiwan co duoc
ho xem la dong minh khong? Van de Taiwan
tro thanh van de sinh ton cua Nhat Ban neu dao nay bi Trung Quoc chiem giu bang
vo luc. An ninh Nhat Ban bi de doa nang
ne. Kinh te Nhat bi bop nghet vi khong
co sinh lo hang hai.